SCOTUS (post-Kavanaugh announcement)
Some basic SCOTUS background and what's next:
1. First things first:
We have to remember with the Gorsuch nomination, the Senate enacted the nuclear option. Which means 51 votes. With McCain out, we need all the Senate Democrats to hold together + two Republicans, to block the nominee.
2. But how do we know the red state Democrats won't vote for Trump's nominee?
Truthfully, we don't. The red state Democrats have voted with Trump in the past - I won't deny this, and you can totally check their voting record here.
But we're betting on the fact that:
- Significant pressure from Democrats
- The fact three of them voted for Gorsuch (urgh)
Will offer cover (e.g. "Look, I already voted for one, and I have objections to this one!") and pave the way for them to vote against Trump's nominee this time around.
Moreover, they've always stuck with other Democrats in dire times, e.g. on the tax bill, healthcare, etc. My rational is that they'll understand what's REALLY at stake this time, and vote with the Dems. We just have to constantly pressure them to do so.
(Also, don't ask me why they don't vote w/ Dems every time; I don't live in their states, and I can't factor in what they factor in, when it comes to appeasing both Democratic and Republican voters. Politics is not a black and white issue.)
But we're betting on the fact that:
- Significant pressure from Democrats
- The fact three of them voted for Gorsuch (urgh)
Will offer cover (e.g. "Look, I already voted for one, and I have objections to this one!") and pave the way for them to vote against Trump's nominee this time around.
Moreover, they've always stuck with other Democrats in dire times, e.g. on the tax bill, healthcare, etc. My rational is that they'll understand what's REALLY at stake this time, and vote with the Dems. We just have to constantly pressure them to do so.
(Also, don't ask me why they don't vote w/ Dems every time; I don't live in their states, and I can't factor in what they factor in, when it comes to appeasing both Democratic and Republican voters. Politics is not a black and white issue.)
3. But what can I do RIGHT NOW?
A. Take the time to learn about Kavanaugh's background:
There's a lot of partial truths floating around social media, and it's important we're razor short in our accuracy.
You can start with:
Politico
New York Times
Washington Post
ABC News
The Economist
Here's also a handy graph from Axios, which explains where Kavanaugh would be on the ideological spectrum.
There's a lot of partial truths floating around social media, and it's important we're razor short in our accuracy.
You can start with:
Politico
New York Times
Washington Post
ABC News
The Economist
Here's also a handy graph from Axios, which explains where Kavanaugh would be on the ideological spectrum.
B. Figure out if you have any senators on judiciary. If you do, call. Link here
Senate Judiciary will be holding the confirmation hearings for Kavanaugh. So if you have members on Senate judiciary:
1. Urge them to do their due diligence when it comes to vetting him, but
2. Also encourage them to push for the release of all of Kavanaugh's emails while he was at the WH. This is precedent; Elena Kagan's emails were released as a part of her vetting for SCOTUS.
Basically: we want the judiciary hearings to Bork Kavanaugh (named after the failed hearings for SCOTUS nominee Robert Bork), but also drag out the vetting and the hearings with paperwork, so there isn't any vote until after midterms. Make sense?
And even if there is to be a vote before midterms, recreating what happened to Robert Bork, would encourage as many no votes as possible.
Template script:
Senate Judiciary will be holding the confirmation hearings for Kavanaugh. So if you have members on Senate judiciary:
1. Urge them to do their due diligence when it comes to vetting him, but
2. Also encourage them to push for the release of all of Kavanaugh's emails while he was at the WH. This is precedent; Elena Kagan's emails were released as a part of her vetting for SCOTUS.
Basically: we want the judiciary hearings to Bork Kavanaugh (named after the failed hearings for SCOTUS nominee Robert Bork), but also drag out the vetting and the hearings with paperwork, so there isn't any vote until after midterms. Make sense?
And even if there is to be a vote before midterms, recreating what happened to Robert Bork, would encourage as many no votes as possible.
Template script:
You: Hi, my name is [name]. I am calling from [zip].
You: I am asking [Senator] to commit to a thorough vetting and questioning of Judge Kavanaugh's qualifications for the Supreme Court. You: We need to know where Judge Kavanaugh stands on key legal rulings - e.g. Roe v. Wade. Simply stating he accepts established precedent, does not provide enough information. You: Moreover, I am asking that [Senator] push for Judge Kavanaugh's emails from his time at the White House to be released to the public, similar to how Justice Kagan's emails were released to the public during her confirmation process. Justice Kagan's emails were used to vet her legal history; Judge Kavanaugh's emails should be used to do the same. You: <Insert optional comments> |
C. Call your non-judiciary senators (particularly if you have a red state Democratic senator)
For non-judiciary senators (or all senators at large) we want to:
1. Continue to call and push them to push for the vote to be after midterms.
2. But also challenge Kavanaugh's credentials, and tell your senators they can't support the nomination. You can make those calls based on the information we have now, and continue to do so as information comes out during the confirmation process.
3. For our red state Dems, we want to continue to affirm their decision to NOT go to the Kavanaugh announcement, and get them to a no vote. Our voices have to overwhelm the conservatives in their states.
For non-judiciary senators (or all senators at large) we want to:
1. Continue to call and push them to push for the vote to be after midterms.
2. But also challenge Kavanaugh's credentials, and tell your senators they can't support the nomination. You can make those calls based on the information we have now, and continue to do so as information comes out during the confirmation process.
3. For our red state Dems, we want to continue to affirm their decision to NOT go to the Kavanaugh announcement, and get them to a no vote. Our voices have to overwhelm the conservatives in their states.
You: Hi, my name is [name]. I am calling from [address/zip code].
You: Now that Judge Kavanaugh has been officially nominated to SCOTUS, I am calling to ask [Senator] to commit to upholding the McConnell standard, as set during the nomination process for Merrick Garland. You: Merrick Garland was nominated 237 days before that year's election, and McConnell said that was too close to Election Day for President Obama to pick, and voters should decide. Justice Kennedy's retirement announcement was made 132 days before this year's election. Clearly, the same standards should apply. You: It's also worth noting: the President is currently under active investigation, and the ramifications of that investigation might reach the Supreme Court. Consequently, he shouldn't pick a nominee. But now that he has, the Senate should uphold the McConnell rule. You: <insert optional comment here> |
Contact your state representatives, and ask for legislation protecting rights on the state level. In conjunction with our federal efforts, we need to work on our state legislatures as well.
Specifically for Roe v. Wade, here's what happened if Roe is overturned.
- States with “trigger laws” that would automatically ban some or all abortions: Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, and South Dakota.
- States with pre-Roe abortion bans still on the books: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and West Virginia. (Also Mississippi, because it has trigger laws and pre-Roe laws.)
- States with laws that describe an intention to pass (more) anti-abortion laws: Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and Ohio.
- States with laws that explicitly protect abortion: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Nevada, and Washington.
You can read more here and here.
So now is the time to start reaching out to your state electeds (info here), and ask them to pursue legislation that will protect abortion rights and other individual rights at the state level. This is a thing that can be done - Slate digs into state-level protections here.
You can call and say:
1. You want to ask elected to look into certain legislation for specific rights (explain you're concerned [issue] is going to be overturned on the federal level), and ask elected to proceed.
2. If you're well-versed on an issue, consider agreeing to a meeting and talk over ideas with staff.
You: Hi, my name is [name]. I am calling to ask [state elected] to consider pursuing legislation to protect abortion rights within our state.
For those impacted by trigger laws: I understand that Roe v. Wade is precedent at the federal level, but I think we need to affirm abortion protections at the state level as well. For those w/out trigger laws: Given recent developments at the federal level, I am calling on [state elected] to propose legislation to ensure that a woman's right to an abortion will be protected within our state. OPTIONAL You: I would be happy to schedule a meeting and talk to staff as needed, about this proposal. You: <Additional optional comments here> |
You: Hi, my name is [name]. I am calling to ask [state elected] to consider pursuing legislation to protect [legislative issue].
You: Given recent developments at the federal level with the latest nomination to SCOTUS, we need to affirm that [legislative issue] will continue to be protected at the state level. OPTIONAL You: I would be happy to schedule a meeting and talk to staff as needed, about this proposal. You: <Additional optional comments here> |
5. What's next? I want to keep fighting.
We have a two-pronged strategy for dealing with the Senate next, involving two scenarios.
***
Scenario one: The SCOTUS vote is pushed back to after midterms.
If that's the case, we need to help all of the Senate Democrats who are up for reelection this cycle (23 Dems + 2 independents) keep their seats. We also need to do everything in our power to help flip two seats (e.g. Arizona and Tennessee seem the most likely), which will help us regain the balance of power.
IF we do that, we can successfully block a SCOTUS nominee.
***
Scenario two: The SCOTUS vote occurs before midterms.
If that happens, things will be bad. I'm not going to mince words. But we still need to defend the senate and try to flip two seats to regain power anyway, since a Senate Democrat firewall, will be the key to blocking some of the worst legislation that the Trump Administration will put out.
Make sense? In either scenario, protecting current Senate Democrats, and trying to flip two seats is key.
***
Also, for those of you who like to think ahead - which I urge all of you to do - another reason we need to protect the Senate Dems, is because some of our likely 2020 presidential candidates will come from the pool of 23. Some of them could make excellent presidents, but no presidential candidate has lost a senate race, and then been successfully elected president. The momentum simply isn't there. Keep that in mind.
Now. Where can you start, you ask? I - with the help of others - have compiled a list of critical Senate seats at roadto18.com.
Each of the Senators represents a state where Trump won in double digits. Some of them are polling really well - e.g. Sherrod Brown - but some are in narrow margin territory. Pick two Senators from that list, and adopt them. Commit to doing something for them every week from now until election day, whether it's donating, phone banking or other volunteer work.
If you need help picking a Senator, I'd suggest: Donnelly, Heitkamp, Manchin, McCaskill or Nelson. They all have their own backstories - e.g. Donnelly barely won his last election, and only did because his opponent massively screwed up - and need your support.
***
Scenario one: The SCOTUS vote is pushed back to after midterms.
If that's the case, we need to help all of the Senate Democrats who are up for reelection this cycle (23 Dems + 2 independents) keep their seats. We also need to do everything in our power to help flip two seats (e.g. Arizona and Tennessee seem the most likely), which will help us regain the balance of power.
IF we do that, we can successfully block a SCOTUS nominee.
***
Scenario two: The SCOTUS vote occurs before midterms.
If that happens, things will be bad. I'm not going to mince words. But we still need to defend the senate and try to flip two seats to regain power anyway, since a Senate Democrat firewall, will be the key to blocking some of the worst legislation that the Trump Administration will put out.
Make sense? In either scenario, protecting current Senate Democrats, and trying to flip two seats is key.
***
Also, for those of you who like to think ahead - which I urge all of you to do - another reason we need to protect the Senate Dems, is because some of our likely 2020 presidential candidates will come from the pool of 23. Some of them could make excellent presidents, but no presidential candidate has lost a senate race, and then been successfully elected president. The momentum simply isn't there. Keep that in mind.
Now. Where can you start, you ask? I - with the help of others - have compiled a list of critical Senate seats at roadto18.com.
Each of the Senators represents a state where Trump won in double digits. Some of them are polling really well - e.g. Sherrod Brown - but some are in narrow margin territory. Pick two Senators from that list, and adopt them. Commit to doing something for them every week from now until election day, whether it's donating, phone banking or other volunteer work.
If you need help picking a Senator, I'd suggest: Donnelly, Heitkamp, Manchin, McCaskill or Nelson. They all have their own backstories - e.g. Donnelly barely won his last election, and only did because his opponent massively screwed up - and need your support.